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Oscars Prop Bets: The Best Longshots to Target

Every year that I use a model by Harvard graduate and baseball analyst Ben Zauzmer that is submitted at The Hollywood Reporter to win, nay, crush a hometown Oscars pool.
But holding bragging rights over your friends isn’t near as entertaining as taking an offshore sportsbook to the cleaners, so I thought, why not use it to Oscars prop bets? This season I set my sites on using his model to locate the most inefficient and exploitable chances.
In comparing the percentages from Zauzmer’s model together with the implied odds on Bovada, I was able to spot a couple of longshot, contrarian stakes offering substantial value due to this favorite, frequently Roma, being overvalued.
It is not likely that a vast majority of these hit, but at these odds we actually just should bink one to have a rewarding Sunday evening.
All credit belongs to the very sharp Ben Zauzmer, therefore please follow him Twitter and test out both of his posts on The Hollywood Reporter (2 & 1 ), where you can observe the model’s full results, plus his comment.
And for even more best Oscars prop bets, check out my appearance at the specialized categories.
Best Picture
Favorite: Roma (-330)
Best Bet: BlacKkKlansman (+3000)
Zauzmer’s model gives Roma a 32.6% to win best picture, which is a far cry from the implied Bovada odds of 76%. The model provides BlacKkKlansman a 17.5percent chance to acquire — a big discrepancy from Bovada’s 3 percent indicated odds. It might be a longshot, but that is too much value to pass up on.
Via Zauzmer:
«ROMA EARNED MAJOR HONORS FROM THE DIRECTORS GUILD AND BAFTAS — GOOD ENOUGH TO VAULT INTO FIRST PLACE, BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO APPROACH 50 PERCENT. SO THERE’S ACTUALLY A BETTER CHANCE THAT ROMA LOSES THAN WINS, BUT IT’S STILL THE MOST LIKELY WINNER AMONG THE EIGHT CONTENDERS.»
Finest Director Favorite: Alfonso Cuaron (-2000)
Finest Bet: Yorgos Lanthimos (+3300)
The Favourite, starring Emma Stone, may not be getting its proper due. (Image: Vox)
Similar to Best Picture, there’s a huge discrepancy between the way Bovada and Zauzmer are handicapping the race.
Bovada’s suggested odds give Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) a 95% likelihood of success, whereas Zauzmer’s model gives him a 65% chance. The value here can be seen with The Favourite director, Yorgos Lanthimos, whom the version provides a greater opportunity to acquire (11.6%) than Bovada’s implied odds (2.8%).

Read more here: http://whitemoose.com/ufc-wichita-ufc-nashville-and-ufc-philadelphia-get-new-bouts/

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