This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Minnesota. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. In addition they possess a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. There are just 14 more chairs remaining so there will not be much more time to be eligible if you’re attempting to. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at the $25k prize, then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Jared Gordon — $9,200
I like Gordon to get the win this weekend and he will be a money match play of mine personally. There are better fights to target when we’re on the lookout for 1st round knockouts but I will be focusing more on people in GPPs. I like the ground and the ceiling of Gordon here and that is why he’s the money play of this week. I really don’t think Moret has got the ability to actually examine the chin of Gordon’s that has appeared to be his main weakness recently. With the speed Gordon sets I think he’s 100+ upside into a decision win and I really don’t see him becoming finished here so he should have a solid floor. I believe his floor in a win is likely 80+ as well that is completely fine for money games. This is a tricky feeble, however this is my personal favorite money game place of this week.
GPP drama of the week — Francis Ngannou — $8,800
I had to proceed with Ngannou here. When he wins it is most likely that a 1st round knockout. Which is +100 on the gambling line. If he gets that 1st round KO, then he scores over 100 DK points and in his $8.8k salary that will put him on the 25k lineup. He will be very chalky this week though so make sure you load him up if you are multi-entering if you want to find leverage over the area. I do think JDS is a live underdog here as well, so I will be targeting both sides of this struggle, but I really do see 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here which can beat a good deal of the fighters priced above him.
Underdog drama of the week — Junior Albini — $8,000
I really don’t love this card this week because I’m not picking any actual underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only man who’d be considered an underdog that I do believe will win and that I did pick him put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we are getting him $200 less than Greene but that I wouldn’t be shocked if Albini was the favored on the gambling line moving into the conflicts. With these guys being Heavyweights, it doesn’t take much to get a knockout and if Albini can do that at $8k he could give me a rush in the perfect lineup.
Fade of the week — Emily Whitmire $8,500
I faded Whitmire in her preceding fight as well and she burned me scoring a 1st round entry. I am going back to the fade though and trusting the same doesn’t occur. On a card where I’m choosing basically every favorite, I would rather pick the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire in her 8.5k price label. I am not sure that moving to the ground is in her best interest in this struggle and if she remains standing I don’t see her paying off value in a triumph. If I was making 150 lineups this week then I would be taking some shots on Whitmire, however that I will probably only make ~20 and she will not make my player pool with this many lineups.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you Want my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 83-52 to get +251.89u (+$25,421) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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